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Bitcoin’s Current Run of $100 Price Volatility is the Longest for 18 Months

Click here to view original web page at www.coindesk.com

The bitcoin market is experiencing some of the lowest volatility it’s seen in 18 months.

The daily volatility, as represented by the spread between the daily price high and low, fell below $100 on Oct. 19 and since then, has remained under that psychological mark, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI).

The seven-day period of below $100 volatility is the longest since the end of April 2017.

It is worth noting that BTC averaged around $1,200 in April and early May of 2017. Further, the average daily volatility during that period was $33, that is, prices moved 2.75 percent on a daily basis. Hence, back then, a $100 daily volatility reading was a normal thing.

As of now, BTC is averaging around $6,500 and the average daily volatility has dropped to $56 in the last seven days, meaning prices are moving just 0.86 percent on a daily basis. So, it seems safe to say that we are witnessing an unprecedented period of low volatility.

Such times of tranquility often end in a big move on either side. However, bitcoin price volatility has been falling over months now and a promised sustained shift to either bulls or bears has so far not materialized.

Under these conditions, the best thing to do is to jot down the key levels and trade the breakout.

Weekly chart

Bull breakout scenario: Move above $7,400

A break above the September high of $7,400 would put an end to the series of lower price highs (marked by circles). The bull breakout, if confirmed, would open the doors to a stronger rally to $10,000. On the way higher, BTC may encounter resistance at the July highs near $8,500.

Bear breakout scenario: BTC finds acceptance below $6,000

As seen in the weekly chart above, BTC seems to have carved out a bottom around $6,000. The likes of Billionaire investor Novogratz have also echoed similar sentiments in the recent past. As a result, $6,000 is the level to beat for the bears.

If BTC finds acceptance below that level, then the bears may end up pushing prices down to $5,000.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

The daily volatility, as represented by the spread between the daily price high and low, […]

Crypto Hardware Wallet Trezor Now Allows Converting Bitcoin To Other Cryptocurrencies From Device

TREZOR, a popular Bitcoin and cryptocurrency hardware wallet just upgraded to allow the users of Model T to exchange directly through their wallet interface. This implies that the user does not need to send coins from their device for conversion.

The company behind TREZOR, Santoshi Labs announced the brand new feature in a blog post on the official website. The platform aims to establish TREZOR Model T as a flagship hardware wallet.  Notably, the exchange would not be governed by Satoshi Labs, ShapeShift and Changelly, the partnering third parties will do the needful. The announcement elaborated:

The exchange feature is provided by various third parties; SatoshiLabs bears no responsibility for the process, exchange rates, fees, or functionality. In this initial release, we have decided to cooperate with ShapeShift and Changelly. 

Interestingly, the  Satoshi Labs will not handle any processes associated with the exchange process, even including the KYC requirements. The post mentions:

Trezor Wallet will always operate without KYC, as the Wallet or your Trezor device are not custodial. If the exchange providers decide to enact KYC, registration and verification will be done by them. Your personal information will not be processed by Trezor Wallet / SatoshiLabs, nor will it ever be requested by the company. Customer support for exchanges will be serviced by the partners. 

The official statement clarifies that Satoshi Labs will incorporate their new exchange features via various third parties. The initial choice of Changelly and ShapeShift raise some curious eyebrows.

The  CEO at Changelly, Ilya Bere, stated her surprise in an interview for Bitcoinist, he reveals that he was “honestly” surprised by the move. This surprise is attributed to the fact that both partners are instant cryptocurrency exchange platforms and ShapeShift recently introduced “mandatory” KYC requirements after the platform was accused of being involved in a money-laundering scheme by the Wall Street Journal. Erik Voorhees, the CEO at ShapeShift stated:

The WSJ article’s implication that ShapeShift is somehow negligent or complicit on this issue of money laundering is false and absurd; emblematic of a media industry that cares more about clickbait sensationalism than it does about improving the financial state of mankind.

Read more: Bitcoin Futures Will Go Live On Bakkt In December

Mt Gox’s Bitcoin Creditors Have 4 Days to Submit Rehabilitation Claims

Click here to view original web page at www.coindesk.com

Clients of the long-defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox must submit any claims for trapped funds by Oct. 22.

As previously reported by CoinDesk, the exchange first opened up the claims process in August, following a protracted bankruptcy battle.

In June, petitioners asking for their bitcoin back won a major victory, as the Japanese bankruptcy court overseeing the proceedings shifted the case to one of civil rehabilitation, meaning creditors could file for their cryptocurrency holdings, rather than a fiat equivalent based on cryptocurrency prices in 2014.

Bitcoin was worth less than $600 at the time, but has since soared to around $20,000 in December 2017 and is at $6,508 at press time, according to CoinDesk data.

After the October deadline passes, as set out in late June, Mt. Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi will have a further three months to file a statement of approval or rejection.

While creditors can file for bitcoin claims, they cannot yet claim proceeds from any of the bitcoin forks that occurred since the funds were first frozen in 2014.

According to the statement outlining the civil rehabilitation process:

“At this moment, we plan not to accept specific filing of cryptocurrencies other than bitcoins. Instead, we plan to deem bitcoin creditors who have filed a proof of claim for bitcoins have also filed a proof of claims for other cryptocurrencies proportionate to the number of bitcoins filed. We will post the further detailed information on this website.”

Both corporate and individual creditors have been able to file for claims as of last month.

Mt. Gox image via Shutterstock

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

As previously reported by CoinDesk, the exchange first opened up the claims […]

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The Bitcoin Podcast Network: Hashing It Out #27: Radical Markets

Blockchain hipsters, we have a treat: Dr. Weyl, co-author of Radical Markets. His book quickly became a popular with us in decentralization. The book proposes new ways to create marketplaces to provide better opportunities for optimal redistribution of resources. This has especially strong implications for those designing decentralized systems and applications. We talk with him about his book, the motivations behind radical markets, and potential futures involving his schemes. Links http://radicalmarkets.com/ http://glenweyl.com/

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Do These Indicators Suggest a Bitcoin Price Rally Early in 2019?

Click here to view original web page at www.coindesk.com

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has enjoyed a staggering price increase in excess of 150,000 percent since it was first listed on exchanges back in July 2010.

Since then, the cryptocurrency has also experienced multiple bull runs, bear runs (the longest of which consumed much of 2014 and 2015) and stronger media attention year on year.

From a technical perspective, the relationship BTC has with traditional charting patterns is occasionally counter-intuitive to what one would normally expect.

Take, for example, the descending triangle which is typically bearish in nature.

While it does contain the prospect for breaking either way, the repeated failed (bearish) descending triangle breakdowns over the course of bitcoin’s life cycle, leaves an unanswered question, are we viewing these patterns the wrong way? And if so what makes this year different?

The case for bitcoin’s bullish breakout

Weekly chart

Bitcoin’s relationship with the 200-day moving average (DMA) and descending triangle pattern has been significant.

Descending triangles are measured by connecting a series of lower highs, usually angled at 45 degrees and breaking down left to right thus creating a primary trendline. The secondary baseline connects two or more of the lowest lows in a series to form the horizontal ‘floor’.

What you end up with is a descending triangle pattern that demonstrates a gradual loss of confidence in the asset you are looking at.

When the patterns and indicators are combined on bitcoin’s weekly chart they show a consistent counter-play to their traditional bearish norms. As can be seen, price generally breaks bullish from the formation instead of continuing to lower supports as it normally should.

The only other time bitcoin broke down from the descending triangle was back in March 2014. Post-breakdown, the bulls managed a short-term rally before being rejected by the 200-DMA, which held price under for 1.2 years.

It’s clear that the price of bitcoin being under the 200 DMA firmly establishes the market as bearish, and this time around is no exception. That said, history would suggest an upside break of the current descending triangle may be on the cards soon, and that could initiate a move above the DMA as a sign of a larger trend reversal.

While it does offer insights into the relationship bitcoin has with the 200-DMA, it is key to remember that the patterns also vary in scope and size, which is usually telling of the price action that follows.

So, based off the previous 1.2 year bear run, it’s possible bitcoin could turn bullish by early next year, especially if all fundamentals are taken into account, as suggested by CNBC cryptotrader, Ran Nuener.

The case for bitcoin’s bearish breakdowns

On the flipside, bitcoin has been staring down a bear market for the last 7 months and has dropped below the significant 200-DMA beginning Feb. 5.

Traditional patterns such as descending triangles are still worth viewing in bearish terms since the onset rush from 2017/18 was unprecedented and the subsequent sell-off that followed has seen bitcoin drop 67 percent to date from its all-time-high in December 2017.

Daily chart

As stated earlier, price falling below the 200 DMA has proven to be a sign the market has officially turned bearish.

A bearish trend combined with a bearish price pattern, the descending triangle, creates an ideal technical set up for further depreciation even though bitcoin tends to negate the bear view.

If price does break down as it technically should, there is a prior resistance and support zone in the $4,900 to $5,400 that may once again offer support to the falling price.

If price breaks up as it historically should, the nearby lower highs need to be surpassed on the higher time frames in order to prove a bearish to bullish trend change is in order. The first lower high that price needs to find acceptance above is near $6,850 (differs among exchanges dealing in USDT), while the next is closer to $7,400.

View

  • Bitcoin has ignored the bearish implications of the descending triangle in the past, so there is merit in considering a bullish resolution.
  • Beginning in 2012, prices dropped below the 200-DMA (including 2018) twice. The prior bear market lasted 1.2 years, leaving some to speculate a possible ending in sight for the current retracement in price from the all-time-highs seen late last year.
  • A weekly close below the triangle would likely provide confirmation to bearish continuation and set the stage for a prolonged bear market.
  • Only finding acceptance above the 200 DMA and the descending triangle would revive bullish market settings

Disclosure: The authors hold USDT at the time of writing.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

The Bitcoin Podcast Network: Hashing It Out #26: NuFHE

Great Caesar’s Ghost! NuCypher has demo’d a practical fully-homomorphic encryption (FHE) scheme that leverages an Ethereum smart contract for a proof mechanism. We get to go over FHE: what it is, how it works, how it commits to the blockchain, scaling issues, and the future of encrypted computation. This will enable new privacy mechanisms on layer 2 solutions which interface with the blockchain cheaply and efficiently. Very big stuff for anyone trying to use blockchain as a resolution mechanism but wants to hide their business rules in the process! Links https://blog.nucypher.com/releasing-nufhe-library-b5f9345dc1fb https://github.com/nucypher/nufhe

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